Bitcoin Exhibits 5 Bear Market Indicators as of January 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant volatility in January 2026, influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and EU due to President Trump's recent tariff policies.
Over the last day, Bitcoin's value has declined by approximately 2.5%, reaching $92,663. Analysts highlight five critical bear market indicators surfacing in 2026.
1. Bearish Kumo Twist on Bitcoin Chart
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has identified a "Kumo twist" on Bitcoin's weekly chart. This formation, where the Ichimoku Cloud's leading spans cross, indicates a potential shift from bullish to bearish conditions. Historically, such shifts have preceded significant corrections, with potential drawdowns of 67% to 70%.
2. Bitcoin Below Key Resistance Levels
Currently trading below its 365-day moving average near $101,000, Bitcoin struggles to break past this critical barrier, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market. Analysts like Coin Bureau suggest that this indicates ongoing bearish market conditions. Further technical analysis reveals Bitcoin's failure to retest the Gaussian Channel's median level, a historical precursor to more aggressive bear markets.
3. Historical Patterns Indicate Potential Declines
Bitcoin's past cycles show sharp declines after peaks, with previous drops of 75.9% in 2013, 81.2% in 2017, and 74% in 2021. The current cycle's modest 30% correction suggests the possibility of further declines.
4. Market Cycle Indicator Suggests Bear Phase Progression
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025. While not yet in an extreme bear phase, the indicator suggests potential for further downturns, as historically observed.
5. Exchange Inflows Indicate Distribution
On-chain data reveals increased Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, primarily by mid- to large-sized holders. This trend suggests growing distribution activity, potentially leading to a more fragile market phase. Analysts emphasize that these inflows reflect strategic decisions by significant market participants.
Overall, Bitcoin is displaying multiple bear market signals across various indicators. Whether Bitcoin will follow historical patterns or demonstrate resilience remains to be seen.