XRP Spot ETF: 85% Chance of 2025 Approval

Bloomberg Intelligence has significantly raised its prediction for the approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025. Analysts now estimate an 85% chance of the SEC granting approval, a substantial increase from their 65% forecast in February.

Key Takeaways

• Bloomberg projects an 85% probability of XRP spot ETF approval in 2025.
• Litecoin and Solana ETFs have a 90% chance of approval, according to Bloomberg.

This increased optimism reflects a positive shift in the regulatory landscape. Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have also adjusted their predictions for other digital asset ETFs.

Other Crypto ETF Approval Odds

• Litecoin: 90% – Bolstered by the CFTC's commodity classification.
• Solana: 90% – Driven by multiple ETF filings and growing institutional interest in its DeFi and NFT ecosystems.
• Dogecoin and Hedera: 80%
• Cardano: 75% (Grayscale filing only)
• Avalanche and Polkadot: 75%

The SEC recently delayed decisions on several applications, including spot XRP and Solana ETFs, a Hedera ETF, a Dogecoin ETF, and Ethereum staking ETFs. These delays are expected to be resolved in Q3 and Q4 of 2025. While rejection is always possible due to concerns about market manipulation or investor protection, the analysts believe approval is more likely given the maturity of futures markets, legal developments, and growing bipartisan support for a well-defined crypto market structure.

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