US Economic Data: How It Could Sway Bitcoin This Week
As July concludes, all eyes in the crypto market are on August, with several crucial US economic signals poised to impact investment strategies. This week's data releases are particularly critical as Bitcoin (BTC) flirts with the $120,000 mark.
Key US Economic Indicators to Watch
The crypto market is showing strength, with Bitcoin nearing $120,000. Whether this rally continues depends on upcoming US economic data.
Consumer Confidence
The week begins with the Consumer Confidence report. In June 2025, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93.0, a 5.0-point decrease from May. The forecast for July is a median of 96.0, but concerns persist due to factors like trade policy.
Eroding consumer confidence can reduce appetite for risk. If the July report exceeds expectations, it could boost crypto markets; however, pessimism may drive investors to safer assets.
Jobs Reports and Bitcoin Volatility
US labor data is a significant macro factor for Bitcoin in 2025. Here are the key jobs reports to watch:
- JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): The June JOLTS report is expected to show 7.4 million job openings, down from May’s 7.8 million.
- ADP Employment: Economists project an increase of 82,000 jobs in July, still below the previous reading.
- Initial Jobless Claims: Economists anticipate up to 221,000 applications. A rise in claims might push the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance, weakening the dollar and boosting Bitcoin’s appeal.
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): The US Employment report for July is due Friday. Economists anticipate a 4.2% unemployment rate against a slowdown in jobs to 102,000.
Strong job growth might lead the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy, potentially suppressing Bitcoin. Conversely, if economic concerns prompt a more dovish approach, Bitcoin could benefit.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The FOMC interest rate decision arrives on Wednesday, following a US CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% in June. While FOMC minutes hinted at possible rate cuts, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.9% probability that rates will remain unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for future outlook clues. Hints of September rate cuts could boost market optimism, while a continuation of previous stances might trigger a market correction.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading in cryptocurrencies comes with risk. Conduct thorough research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.