US Bitcoin Dominance? Projection Sparks Debate on BTC Holdings
US to Dominate Bitcoin Ownership by 2025? Experts Skeptical
A recent projection circulating on X suggests that the United States could hold approximately 7.8 million Bitcoin by the end of 2025, representing roughly 40% of the total BTC supply. The same data indicates India would possess around 1 million BTC, or 5.1% of the global supply, by the same year.
However, the accuracy of these figures is being heavily debated within the crypto community.
Source of Data Questioned
Investor Fred Krueger shared an image on X outlining these projections, but the original source of the data remains unclear. Blockstream CEO Adam Back commented on Krueger’s post, stating: “The source data looks unrealistic… it’s not good data.”
Current US Bitcoin Holdings
Data from Bitcoin Treasuries reveals that the US government currently holds around 198,022 BTC, less than 1% of the total supply. These holdings primarily stem from seizures related to cases like Silk Road and Bitfinex. Previous statements indicated intentions to move seized Bitcoin into national reserves.
Bitcoin Held by US Companies and ETFs
Forty-six of the top public companies with substantial Bitcoin holdings are based in the US. MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings lead the pack, with US public companies collectively holding an estimated 876,517 BTC. Private US companies reportedly hold another 188,105 BTC.
US-based ETFs hold approximately 1,342,715 BTC. This brings the total BTC held by the US government, public companies, private companies, and ETFs to roughly 2,605,359 BTC.
Retail Investor Impact
Triple-A's 2023 data suggests that around 13% of the US population owns cryptocurrency, equating to approximately 46 million people. Bitcoin remains the most popular asset, held by over 73% of US crypto users.
Is 40% Ownership Realistic?
Even considering aggressive growth scenarios, the projection of the US owning 7.8 million BTC by 2025 seems overly optimistic, especially given Bitcoin's global distribution. The claim that India will hold 1 million BTC by 2025 also faces skepticism due to regulatory uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrency in the country.