TON Volatility Plunges: Can $4.5 Be Reclaimed?
Toncoin (TON) has experienced a significant drop in volatility recently, raising questions about its future price trajectory. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the squeezing Bollinger Bands on the 12-hour chart, indicating a potential major price movement is imminent, though the direction remains uncertain.
Price Action and Metrics: A Cautious Outlook
While reduced volatility can precede a sharp price surge, several indicators suggest caution for buyers. Daily active addresses on the Toncoin network, a key metric of network health, peaked in August during a price retracement and have since remained subdued. Even the November rally failed to significantly boost participation. Network growth has also plateaued since October.
Key observations:
- Daily active addresses and network growth have slightly declined over the past two weeks.
- The supply distribution chart shows increased small holdings (100 TON or less), but larger addresses have exhibited consistent selling pressure.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has fallen below November lows, clinging to September lows. The price has broken below recent range lows, retesting the $3.42 support (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). Despite expectations for this level to hold, low network activity and increased selling suggest a potential downward trend. The daily chart displays a firmly bearish structure.
Can $4.5 Support Be Reclaimed?
A Bitcoin (BTC) resurgence could positively impact altcoins, potentially reigniting interest in Toncoin. However, until the $4.5 price point is reclaimed as strong support, a bearish bias remains prudent for swing traders. Codeum, a leader in blockchain security and development, provides services such as smart contract audits, tokenomics consulting, and custom DApp development, offering crucial support for projects navigating market volatility.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and investment decisions should be made carefully considering your own risk tolerance.