Solana Struggles Persist: Key Factor Stalling SOL Price Gains
Solana (SOL) entered November without a clear trajectory. The token has dropped 4% in the past week and nearly 19% this month, with its current price hovering around $186, caught between $178 and $209.
While holder outflows have decelerated, a particular trading group seems to be restraining SOL's price progress.
Institutional Involvement Remains Limited
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator monitoring large investor activity, has yet to surpass zero. During October 27-31, CMF briefly turned positive before declining, indicating large traders are pulling funds from Solana rather than investing in it. Until CMF breaks above zero, significant institutional inflows are absent, limiting Solana's potential growth.
The recently launched Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) attracted $132 million this week. However, as most exposure is likely formed in-kind (from existing SOL reserves) and managed via staking, these inflows haven't translated into tangible market demand.
Despite the ETF introduction and media buzz, Solana's price is down 4% this week, illustrating that passive inflows alone have not revitalized the token.
Solana's Holder Net Position Change, which indicates long-term wallet activity, paints a different picture. On October 3, net outflows peaked at –11.43 million SOL, one of the highest levels this month. By October 31, this improved to –1.91 million SOL, an 83% reduction, signaling a slower pace of selling — a modest but positive shift for Solana's long-term framework.
Bearish Indicators Persist in Solana's Price Setup
Despite reduced selling by holders, Solana's price setup remains vulnerable. The daily chart shows SOL within a broadening rising wedge pattern, often indicating exhaustion and potential breakdown. The lower trendline, tested over five times since August, has faced significant pressure since mid-October.
Between October 13 and October 26, Solana's price formed a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures buying momentum — marked a higher high, creating a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern suggests the larger Solana price downtrend may continue.
For Solana to regain strength, it must first reclaim $198 and then close above $209, paving the way toward $237. However, if $178 is breached (a mere 4.53% drop), a decline to $155 is probable, a 14% decrease, reinforcing the bearish scenario.
To counter this weakness, CMF must rise above zero, and investors should return to net buying. Such spot money flow could help SOL price surpass at least $198 in the short term.