Elon Asks Grok: Is Quantum Computing a Bitcoin Threat?

Quantum Computing vs. Bitcoin: A Decade of Security?

As quantum computing advances, Elon Musk has explored the potential risks to Bitcoin. Musk's AI chatbot, Grok, suggests Bitcoin is likely to remain secure from quantum computing threats for the rest of this decade.

Grok's Assessment: Bitcoin's Resilience

Elon Musk addressed concerns about quantum computing possibly compromising SHA-256, Bitcoin's core cryptographic algorithm. In an X post, Musk asked Grok to evaluate the probability of this technology cracking SHA-256.

Grok responded that Bitcoin's hashing algorithm remains secure in the short term, estimating the probability of quantum computing breaking SHA-256 within five years as nearly 0%. However, it noted that this probability will increase, but remain below 10% by 2035, given the current rate of innovation.

Despite the slight increase in risk, Grok emphasized that malicious actors would need millions of error-corrected qubits to breach Bitcoin's cryptography. Current systems from Google and IBM are only in the early stages of error correction, with full error correction still years away. While there have been speculative claims about the Google Willow Quantum chip potentially breaching Bitcoin's security, the consensus is that a real threat is at least 10-20 years away.

Grok's assessment was based on the 2025 NIST paper and studies by IBM. IBM plans to develop increasingly powerful quantum computers, including the IBM Quantum Blue Jay with 2,000 logical qubits, expected in 2033.

Proactive Measures in the Crypto Space

While Grok's analysis offers short-term reassurance, Bitcoin developers are proactively exploring quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms. Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) are being considered to transition the network from legacy systems.

Ethereum is also preparing for potential quantum threats. Developers recently announced a 10-year plan to enhance quantum resistance while improving transaction speeds. For projects launching tokens or needing smart contract audits to ensure robustness against future threats, platforms like Codeum offer blockchain security solutions.

Amid these discussions, Bitcoin has been recovering from a recent market dip, trading around $113,974, while Ethereum holds above $3,500.