Kalshi Dominates Prediction Market as US Trading Surges

Kalshi Leads Prediction Market Volume

Kalshi is emerging as the frontrunner in the prediction market arena, capturing a significant portion of trading volume despite increased competition from platforms like Polymarket, particularly as these platforms expand within the regulated U.S. market.

During the week of September 11-17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to Dune Analytics data. Polymarket held 37% of the market share. Kalshi's weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million, with an average open interest of approximately $189 million.

Key Metrics Compared

Kalshi's volume exceeds Polymarket's $430 million, with a greater average open interest of $164 million, suggesting faster turnover on Kalshi compared to Polymarket.

Polymarket's strategy involves longer-term markets, tying up user funds for extended durations.

The open interest-to-volume ratio reflects this difference: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi had a lower ratio of 0.29, indicating more frequent trading on Kalshi and longer holding periods on Polymarket.

Polymarket's U.S. Expansion

Polymarket is strategically expanding its presence within the U.S. market. The platform finalized its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, paving the way for its reentry into the country.

Additionally, Polymarket has partnered with social investing platform Stocktwits to introduce earnings-based markets, enabling stockholders to hedge earnings risks and analysts to monitor market sentiment in real-time.