HBAR Faces 20% Drop Without Key Reversal Signals

Hedera's HBAR faces a potential 20% drop as bearish patterns emerge, with the cryptocurrency down over 10% in the past week. The price structure is weakening, capital is flowing out, and sentiment has reached multi-month lows.

The head-and-shoulders pattern nearing completion signals a potential bearish reversal if the neckline at $0.102 breaks. A daily close below this could trigger a 20% decline. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), indicating capital outflows, reinforces this risk, as it has fallen below zero and a descending support line.

Structural Risks and Sentiment Analysis

Hedera's positive sentiment has plummeted to its lowest since late October, often preceding price declines. Historical data shows that such sentiment troughs align with falling prices. Currently, sentiment weakens while the price hovers above key support, suggesting potential for further declines.

Opportunities for Reversal

Despite the bearish outlook, there are signs of support. Recent data shows increased net outflows from exchanges, suggesting dip buyers are emerging. On the derivatives front, a significant imbalance towards shorts could lead to short liquidations if the price recovers slightly, potentially driving an upside move.

Key HBAR Price Levels

Key levels to watch include the $0.100-$0.102 range. A daily close below this would confirm the bearish pattern and target a drop to $0.080. Conversely, reclaiming $0.105 could signal stabilization, with a move above $0.112 potentially invalidating the bearish pattern and triggering short liquidations.

In conclusion, while bearish indicators dominate, a slight window for reversal remains open if key support levels hold. The next few daily closes will be critical in determining HBAR's trajectory.