Hayes: Tariff War Could Send Bitcoin to $1 Million

Hayes: Tariff War Could Send Bitcoin to $1 Million

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO at Maelstrom, forecasts a significant Bitcoin price increase, potentially reaching $1 million. He attributes this prediction to the intensifying trade war between the US and China, arguing it's disrupting established economic norms and creating an environment where Bitcoin's neutrality becomes increasingly valuable.

US-China Standoff and Bitcoin Demand

Hayes believes the US dollar/Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) exchange rate could soar to 10.00 due to President Xi Jinping's resistance to altering China's economic policies to appease the US. He sees this as a catalyst for Bitcoin's price surge, stating on X (formerly Twitter): "USDCNY is going to 10.00 bc there is no way that Xi Jinping will agree to change China in the ways necessary to placate Trump. This is the super bazooka BTC needs to ascend rapidly towards $1 million."

Recent events, including the Trump administration's imposition of a 10% blanket tariff on all imports and China's retaliatory tariffs, have heightened global market uncertainty. Trump's defiant response further fuels these concerns. Hayes sees this as a sign of deeper systemic risks.

Erosion of US Dollar Dominance?

Hayes argues that the ongoing tariff war could weaken the global role of US Treasuries and equities. The traditional system where the US exports dollars through trade deficits and foreign nations invest in US assets might become unsustainable. If countries reduce dollar accumulation, the demand for US bonds and stocks will fall, potentially leading to the selling off of reserves.

He emphasizes that even if Trump reverses his policies, trust in the stability of US trade policy will be damaged. This uncertainty strengthens the case for alternative assets.

The Rise of Gold and Bitcoin

Hayes suggests that gold, a traditional safe haven asset, will experience a resurgence in a world grappling with reduced trust in traditional systems. He points out that gold is tariff-exempt, making it crucial in a new monetary order: "The dollar will still be the reserve currency, but nations will hold reserves in gold to settle global trade. Trump hinted at this because gold is tariff exempt! Gold must flow freely and cheaply in the new world monetary order."

However, Hayes sees Bitcoin as even more compelling, highlighting its decentralized nature, capital mobility, and resistance to geopolitical influences. He concludes: "For those who want to adapt to a return to pre-1971 trade relationships, buy gold, gold miners and BTC."

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