Dogecoin (DOGE) Quietly Surges: Can It Break $0.28?

Dogecoin Demand Rises: Will $0.28 Resistance Finally Break?

Dogecoin [DOGE] is at a critical juncture. Recent on-chain data indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, with increased accumulation suggesting a possible breakout.

Key Takeaways

• Coordinated accumulation of DOGE strengthens the $0.20 support level.
• A breakout past the $0.28 resistance appears increasingly likely.

The $0.18–$0.20 range has acted as a strong support base for the past six weeks. Furthermore, Open Interest (OI) is up approximately 6%, signaling growing anticipation of a significant price movement.

The current market setup presents two possibilities: a genuine breakout or a potential bull trap. AMBCrypto believes key on-chain signals could determine the memecoin's next direction.

Short-Term Holders (STHs) Regain Influence

Dogecoin's recent 6.84% rally in 24 hours appears to be fueled by speculative trading. As Bitcoin [BTC] surpassed $110,000, capital flowed into memecoins seeking quick profits. Another failed attempt to breach the $0.25–$0.28 range remains a possibility.

However, on-chain data provides further insights. The distribution of DOGE between Long-Term Holders (LTHs) and STHs offers clues to potential price action.

Back in 2022–23, LTHs held the majority of DOGE, resulting in relatively stable prices. During the 2024 hype, LTHs began selling, and STHs took control, driving DOGE past $0.50. Subsequently, as late buyers sold off, DOGE plummeted towards $0.10.

Now, in 2025, the cycle seems to be resetting. LTH supply is gradually decreasing, while STHs are slowly accumulating. This renewed short-term accumulation could pave the way for DOGE's next upward surge.

DOGE Accumulation Gains Momentum

The effect of STH accumulation is becoming evident in Dogecoin's price action. On the weekly chart, DOGE established its first higher low in mid-July around $0.20, initiating six weeks of sideways consolidation. This base has provided structural support, allowing the market to stabilize.

This resilience has coincided with an increase in STH supply, rising from 33 billion to 37 billion over the same period. This suggests that STHs are quietly accumulating while prices remain stable, indicating potential bullish momentum.

Adding to this bullish scenario, a whale recently withdrew 10.366 million DOGE ($2.25 million) from Binance after two years of inactivity. This indicates that long-dormant holders are re-entering the market, adding further support to the potential upside.

In summary, the coordinated accumulation by both STHs and LTHs suggests that DOGE's recent 6% increase is more than just hype. It points to a possible retest of the $0.30 level in the near future.