Cardano Founder Predicts Ethereum's Demise
Remember BlackBerry? Once a dominant force, its inability to adapt led to its decline. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson now warns that Ethereum might face a similar fate.
Ethereum's Future: Hoskinson's Bold Prediction
In a recent AMA, Hoskinson predicted Ethereum's lifespan to be no more than 10 to 15 years. He attributes this to several factors:
- Layer-2 drain: Layer-2 solutions are siphoning value and activity away from the Ethereum mainnet.
- Internal divisions: Growing internal conflicts hinder Ethereum's progress and long-term stability.
- Migration to competitors: Users are gradually shifting towards more efficient ecosystems, including Bitcoin DeFi.
While acknowledging Ethereum's initial brilliance, Hoskinson compares its potential downfall to that of Myspace and BlackBerry – victims of their own success, overtaken by newer, more efficient systems.
Ethereum's Fundamental Flaws
Hoskinson highlights three key flaws within Ethereum's design:
- Outdated technical architecture: Ethereum's accounting model, virtual machine, and consensus mechanism are considered outdated and inefficient.
- Destabilizing Layer-2s: Instead of bolstering Ethereum, layer-2 networks are fragmenting the ecosystem, creating challenges for maintaining protocol unity.
- Lack of on-chain governance: The absence of effective on-chain governance exacerbates the challenges.
Ethereum's Current Struggles
Hoskinson's concerns align with Ethereum's current challenges: Base-layer activity is plummeting, with key metrics like fees and network usage hitting multi-year lows. Ether (ETH) is no longer deflationary, undermining a significant value proposition.
Institutional investors are also showing hesitation. Lookonchain data revealed Galaxy Digital's shift from ETH to Solana, and Paradigm has also decreased its ETH holdings.
While some whales are accumulating ETH, betting on a recovery, the short-term outlook remains uncertain. Standard Chartered recently lowered its 2025 ETH price forecast.
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