Bitcoin's Triangle Breakout: Can It Hold?
Bitcoin's Triangle Breakout: Will CPI Data Sustain the Momentum?
The crypto market is closely watching Bitcoin's price as it navigates a triangle breakout, hovering above $114,000. This movement coincides with the anticipation of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a key inflation indicator for the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Wall Street's CPI Predictions
Following Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing inflation cooling to 2.6%, the market is keenly awaiting the CPI data for directional cues amid rising uncertainty and volatility.
Economists anticipate a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, slightly above July's 0.2%. This rise could push headline CPI inflation to 2.9%, following 2.7% in both June and July, influenced by higher import tariffs and rising costs in gasoline and supermarkets.
The core CPI is projected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month, with the annual core CPI expected to remain stable at 3.1%.
Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal reported that the median expectation from 18 Wall Street firms forecasts a consumer price index increase of 0.32%, keeping the 12-month rate steady at 3.1%. Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, and Pantheon Macroeconomics provided the highest estimate of 0.36%.
The median estimate for headline CPI is 0.36%, translating to 2.9% year-over-year. Major financial institutions like Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Employ America, First Trust, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Moody’s, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo anticipate the annual CPI to be around 2.9%.
Expert Analysis on Bitcoin's Triangle Breakout
Market sentiment earlier this month was skewed towards downside risk, influenced by historical seasonality and reflected in derivatives market trends. The double top pattern around $123,000 strengthened after a notable 0.9% increase in the US PPI, causing Bitcoin to dip below $108,000.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, suggests that emerging market shifts could propel Bitcoin upwards if current trends persist. Increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate a change in market dynamics.
Thielen notes that the recent Bitcoin triangle pattern breakout signifies a shift from the mid-August correction. He suggests that Bitcoin's price could continue its upward trajectory above $117,000 if CPI inflation is lower than expected.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $114,144, with a 24-hour range between $112,134 and $114,471. A 7% increase in trading volume over the last 24 hours suggests significant trader interest.