Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Global Conflict
Bitcoin demonstrated surprising stability this week, even amidst escalating global conflicts. According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin's recent price swings have significantly decreased.
Bitcoin Volatility Dips Below Stocks
Data from Bitwise Europe shows Bitcoin's 60-day realized volatility at approximately 27-28% as of June 23rd. This is lower than the S&P 500 (around 30%) and the Nasdaq 100 (near 35%). This suggests traders are less reactive to headlines.
Bitcoin continues to exhibit lower realized volatility than major US equity indices despite record high geopolitical uncertainty.
- André Dragosch, PhD
Calm Amidst Geopolitical Tension
This low volatility is particularly noteworthy given the recent increase in Middle East tensions. While a US bombing in Iran caused a 6% dip in Bitcoin's price (below $100,000), the reaction was muted compared to previous crises. During the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Bitcoin's 60-day realized volatility soared to 60-65%.
Long-Term Holders Maintain Grip
Glassnode data reveals that long-term holders controlled a record average of 14.53 million BTC over 30 days as of June 23rd—approximately 70% of the total supply. Over 30% of circulating Bitcoin is held by 216 large entities (ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries). This reduced supply available for active trading contributes to market stability.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,890. Chart: TradingView
Institutional Investors Support Positive Outlook
Market veterans, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL's Eugene Cheung, view this calm as a foundation for higher prices, predicting Bitcoin will surpass and maintain a price above $100,000 due to increased central bank money printing and institutional investment. Some analysts even forecast prices above $150,000 by the end of 2025, supported by consistent demand and shrinking exchange supply.
Bitcoin's Future
The reduced volatility suggests Bitcoin's maturation as a mainstream asset, potentially attracting more risk-averse investors. However, this stability isn't guaranteed. Large-scale selling by major holders could still trigger significant price movements. For now, Bitcoin's steadier trajectory may represent a turning point, blending traditional market dynamics with the unique forces shaping the crypto landscape.
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