Bitcoin Eyes Q4 Rally: Post-Powell Volatility Precedent
Bitcoin Price Poised for Q4 Surge Following Powell's Remarks
The Bitcoin price has experienced a notable surge following Jerome Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech, briefly pushing BTC above the $116,000 level. This movement has spurred optimism regarding a potential Q4 rally, drawing parallels with historical market behavior after similar announcements. While September may bring volatility, current market structures suggest strong upside potential. Market participants are closely watching current levels, interpreting them as a possible springboard for the next significant rally.
Historical Trends Indicate Potential Upside
A crypto analyst on X platform pointed out Bitcoin's recurring patterns post-Powell speeches: volatility in September, followed by substantial Q4 rallies.
- In 2023, BTC climbed nearly 200% post-speech.
- In 2024, the rally exceeded 100% gains.
- This year's chart indicates a volatile period, potentially leading to a rally above 77%.
This consistent pattern reinforces the possibility of further Bitcoin price increases, as historical reactions to Powell’s remarks have consistently triggered significant gains.
Technical Analysis Shows Positive Signals
On the daily chart, Bitcoin rebounded from $112,000, surpassing $116,000 after Powell’s speech. This move validated support at the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, now acting as a solid base. The price is currently in an accumulation phase between $112,000 and $118,000, with Fibonacci targets at $123,000 and $126,500.
The 50-day EMA around $114,800 is providing additional support, signaling robust demand. Should BTC decisively break the $118,000 resistance, the Bitcoin current price could be primed for another breakout, sustaining its upward trajectory.
Powell’s Speech Sparks Risk Appetite
Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech highlighted labor market risks, suggesting possible Fed rate cuts in September. He noted stagnating job growth with payrolls below expectations, casting doubt on job security.
These comments shifted market sentiment, with the Fed Chair acknowledging that downside risks to growth now outweigh inflationary risks. He also downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, weakening the previously hawkish stance.
Bitcoin reacted swiftly, spiking above $116,000 as investors anticipated looser monetary policy, particularly following mentions of potential September rate cuts. Historically, dovish pivots at Jackson Hole have preceded substantial crypto rallies, and the current cycle appears to follow this pattern.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience by holding key support and responding positively to Powell’s remarks. Historical data supports a potential rally following Jackson Hole, and the consolidation above $112,000 strengthens technical indicators, bolstering investor confidence. Overall, the Bitcoin price prediction leans toward further upside as macro and chart factors align.