Bitcoin Price: Whale Sales Could Push BTC to $105K Support
Bitcoin Faces Potential Drop as Whales Offload Holdings
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp rebound, briefly hitting $117,300 following positive sentiment from the Jackson Hole symposium. However, the rally was short-lived, with BTC retreating to $110,600, forming a bearish weekly engulfing candle.
Onchain data indicates broad distribution of BTC across various wallet sizes, suggesting potential downside pressure. According to Glassnode data, all BTC wallet cohorts are showing distribution behavior, particularly the 10–100 BTC group. This synchronized selling activity is impacting price stability.
Key Support at $105,000
Analyst Boris Vest highlights a divergence in wallet behavior. Smaller holders (0–1 BTC) are accumulating, while 1–10 BTC wallets are buying below $107,000. Conversely, 10–100 BTC wallets have become net sellers above $118,000, and large holders exceeding 1,000 BTC continue to distribute their holdings.
The 100–1,000 BTC group shows a split around the $105,000 level, marking it as a critical support zone. A break below this point could trigger significant corrections.
Realized price data reinforces this view. The realized price for one to three-month holders is at $111,900, while the three to six-month and six to twelve-month cohorts are much lower, at $91,630 and $89,200, respectively. This disparity reflects short-term positioning near recent highs compared to longer-term holders with lower cost bases.
If Bitcoin breaches $105,000, the lack of strong support could accelerate a decline, potentially pushing the price toward the $92,000–$89,000 range.
Seasonal Weakness and ETF Fatigue
Historical data shows that August to September is often a period of weakness for Bitcoin, exacerbated by Asia’s “ghost month” (August 23 to September 21). Since 2017, Bitcoin has seen an average ghost month decline of 21.7%.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Roman Trading points out that BTC/EUR has not reached a new all-time high since last year, suggesting that the recent rally may be linked to a weakening US dollar rather than genuine demand. The analyst also suggests that enthusiasm following the spot Bitcoin ETF launch may be waning.
