Bitcoin (BTC) Primed for Surge? Analyst Spotlights Bullish 'Golden Cross'

Bitcoin is regaining momentum amidst promising technical indicators and significant macro events. The crypto market is responding positively to Donald Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran, an economist known to be pro-Bitcoin, to the Federal Reserve Board. A combination of recurring historical patterns, such as the golden cross, and potential policy shifts are driving increased attention toward Bitcoin's mid-term prospects.

Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge Based on 'Golden Cross' Formation

Market analyst Merlijn The Trader observes that Bitcoin has recently formed a golden cross on its weekly chart—a pattern he calls “the signal that never misses.” He notes that previous golden crosses in 2016, 2017, and 2020 correlated with rallies of 139%, 2200%, and 1190%, respectively. He suggests a similar setup is unfolding in 2025, sharing comparable structure and market enthusiasm.

This historical consistency leads him to suggest that this signal could again act as a catalyst, leading to a more optimistic long-term Bitcoin price forecast.

BTC/USD 1-Week Chart (Source: X/Merlijn The Trader)

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading above a rising trendline of support established since April. After rebounding from approximately $112K, the price is currently around $116K, with immediate resistance at $117.5K near the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

A breakout above this level could pave the way toward $121K and $123.8K, representing the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci extension levels, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, indicating neutral momentum without overbought conditions.

However, failure to hold above the trendline could trigger a correction to the $112K level. Bitcoin's future direction hinges on the bulls' ability to maintain this crucial structure.

BTC/USD 1-Day Chart (Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin Bull Run: Sustainable or Overextended?

On-chain metrics further support a bullish outlook, with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio reaching a new high of 154. This suggests increasing scarcity, typically indicative of strong demand cycles.

The MVRV Z-score, currently at 2.667, isn't yet overheated, implying room for growth without signaling extreme market risk. These conditions are frequently seen during early expansion phases.

These on-chain fundamentals suggest a positive long-term view. When combined with macro and technical indicators, Bitcoin's current position signals the potential for another substantial rally.

Bitcoin On-chain metrics (Source: Santiment)

In conclusion, the confluence of bullish signals suggests Bitcoin is poised for a possible breakout. The golden cross pattern, shifts in macro policy, and strong on-chain metrics provide layered support. Maintaining key trendline levels remains critical for confirming the next upward move. Should these conditions persist, Bitcoin's price may be gearing up for a significant surge in the coming months.

Trump’s Fed Nominee Could Boost Pro-Crypto Policies

The nomination of Stephen Miran, a known Bitcoin advocate, to the Federal Reserve Board has fueled pro-crypto sentiment. Miran favors rate cuts and the use of digital assets, aligning with investor expectations for a more crypto-friendly regulatory landscape.

Historically, looser monetary policies have benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets, particularly early in bull cycles. This nomination reinforces the existing bullish structure, offering potential macro support for Bitcoin. Policy changes may serve as a tailwind in Q4, viewed by traders as a robust complement to technical momentum.