Bitcoin Price Rally Delayed as Bearish Indicators Emerge

Bitcoin’s November performance is falling short of trader expectations, with the cryptocurrency dropping 2.4% in the last 24 hours and 6.2% over the past week.

Current market patterns show short-lived rebounds followed by steeper declines, while on-chain analysis indicates a likely significant dip before the next upward phase.

NUPL Indicates Market Bottom Yet to Be Reached

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which assesses investor profit or loss, suggests a bottom isn’t fully established. A sharp decline in NUPL often signals a reduced incentive to sell, setting the stage for a market bottom.

Bitcoin’s NUPL is at 0.47, a low not seen since April 8, when it was 0.42. Previously, Bitcoin rallied from $76,000 to over $125,000 after a similar NUPL trend.

This time, the metric began its descent in late October, mirroring the February 26 level. A continuation towards 0.42–0.44 by December could mark the next accumulation phase before recovery.

Bearish Crossover as Potential Downtrend Trigger

A bearish crossover, where a short-term EMA crosses below a long-term EMA, is forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart, indicating potential market control shift from buyers to sellers.

This shift often leads to panic-driven selloffs, with short-term sellers overpowering longer-term holders. If the 50-day EMA crosses below the 100-day and prices don't rebound, it may prompt a swift market shakeout, pushing NUPL to its base range.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor

Bitcoin currently trades near $106,900, just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $106,300. If this support fails, the next target is $103,500, which could trigger a 3%–4% decline and lower the NUPL. Conversely, a close above $111,400 would shift the short-term outlook to bullish, challenging the bearish crossover's impact.