Bitcoin Could Dip to $70K: Analyst's Prediction
Concerns are rising about a potential Bitcoin (BTC) price drop to $70,000 within the next ten days. This prediction, stemming from a BTC pricing model, suggests that the ongoing US-led trade war could significantly impact investor sentiment towards risk assets.
$70,000: Bitcoin's Practical Bottom?
Network economist Timothy Peterson, in his latest X analysis, warned of a possible return to Bitcoin's 2021 all-time high. He suggests that the effects of higher-than-expected US trade tariffs are impacting the outlook, leading to this prediction. Peterson's analysis utilizes the Lowest Price Forward (LPF) metric, a historically accurate indicator of long-term BTC price bottoms.
While cautioning that his chart isn't a definitive prediction, Peterson notes that if Bitcoin follows the 75th percentile bear market range, $70,000 would represent a practical bottom. This aligns with LPF data from last month, which indicated a 95% certainty that BTC/USD would maintain the 2021 highs as support.
Peterson's analysis further reveals a shift in April's price expectations, transitioning from a 75% chance of a positive month to a 75% chance of a negative month in just two days.
Current Market Sentiment
This bearish outlook isn't isolated. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that traders are increasingly seeking downside protection, indicating heightened fear. However, Glassnode also notes that despite the panic, Bitcoin hasn't experienced the same sharp drop seen in equities following tariff announcements. The firm suggests this disconnect – rising fear without a price collapse – could indicate a potential bottom.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide financial advice. Conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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