Bitcoin Dips to $104K: Can Inflows Spark a Reversal?
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a price drop to around $104,719 on June 11th, a 2.41% daily decline. This occurred despite a significant influx of $3.3 billion into accumulation wallets—the largest single-day inflow of 2025. This raises the question: can this massive inflow spark a Bitcoin price reversal?
Whale Activity vs. Long-Term Holders
The situation presents a fascinating contrast. While accumulation wallets, often associated with long-term holders, absorbed 30,784 BTC, a prominent whale wallet deposited 1,000 BTC ($106 million) to Binance, continuing a selling trend since April 2024. This whale has already offloaded 6,500 BTC, suggesting profit-taking at key resistance levels. However, they still hold 3,500 BTC, indicating a strategic distribution rather than a complete exit.
Conversely, long-term holders have added a remarkable 881,578 BTC over the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant. This aggressive accumulation demonstrates considerable confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential, even amidst short-term volatility and whale selling.
Technical Analysis: The $112K Resistance
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break the $112,000 resistance level. While the overall market structure remains bullish due to rising trendline support, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping below 50 signals weakening momentum. A sustained price below $106,000 could lead to a further pullback towards $101,000. However, a break above the congestion zone could potentially trap short sellers and trigger a price bounce.
On-Chain Metrics: NVT Ratio and Address Activity
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio surged 15.21% to 36.49, indicating a growing divergence between market capitalization and on-chain transaction volume. Historically, such spikes have signaled potential overvaluation. While high NVT ratios can also appear during early stages of long-term uptrends, it currently suggests Bitcoin's price might be outpacing actual transactional demand. This warrants caution.
Active addresses increased by 1.69% last week, while new addresses decreased by 2.36%. This suggests current users remain engaged despite slower new user growth. While existing user engagement can support short-term price increases, long-term sustainability typically requires a growing user base.
Liquidation Levels and Volatility
The Binance liquidation heatmap shows substantial long liquidations around $105,000 and $102,000. Price movements into these zones could trigger cascading stop-loss orders, increasing volatility. Holding above $104,000 could trap short positions and lead to a price recovery. These clustered liquidation levels often serve as critical inflection points.
Conclusion: Long-Term Outlook
Despite the recent price drop and whale selling, significant long-term holder accumulation and substantial inflows into HODL wallets suggest strong conviction in Bitcoin's future. While on-chain metrics show mixed signals, the overall buyer behavior hints at a positive long-term outlook. Reclaiming $106,000 and maintaining key support levels could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach new highs.
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