Bitcoin Price Dip? Risk-Averse Traders Signal Potential Decline
Bitcoin (BTC) market sentiment has shifted bearish, indicated by a negative Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). This key metric, tracking Bitcoin movement between spot and derivatives exchanges, historically precedes price declines.
Is Bitcoin Entering a Bearish Phase?
The IFP measures the net flow of Bitcoin between exchanges, offering insights into market sentiment and trader positioning. A negative IFP suggests traders are closing positions or preparing to sell, often leading to increased selling pressure and potential price drops.
Historically, negative IFP readings have coincided with market corrections or prolonged bearish periods. For instance, the metric's negative flip in early 2018 preceded Bitcoin's descent into a year-long bear market. Similarly, a mid-2021 negative IFP preceded a sharp price decline.
Current data shows the IFP has again turned negative, raising concerns about a potential bearish cycle. However, the impact's severity varies; some negative IFP periods resulted in short-term corrections before Bitcoin resumed its uptrend, while others signaled sustained downturns.
Source: CryptoQuant
Weak Momentum Signals Further Downside
Bitcoin's price is struggling to gain upward momentum, trading around $97,605 at press time. Technical indicators suggest caution: The 50-day SMA ($98,815) acts as immediate resistance, while the 200-day SMA ($80,002) remains crucial long-term support.
The RSI (46.88) is below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weak buying pressure. The MACD remains in negative territory, further reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Source: TradingView
Failure to reclaim the 50-day SMA could trigger a drop toward $95,000 or lower. Conversely, a breakout above $100,000 would invalidate the bearish bias.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk.
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