Bitcoin Price Dip: ETF Approval Odds & Market Outlook

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The January 3rd, 2024 episode features an interview with Eddy Gifford, TACTIVE wealth advisor, discussing January price predictions, the likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETF approval, and other significant market news.

Key Market Data (January 3rd, 2024, 8 AM ET):

• Bitcoin: Traded at $42,593, down over 6% in the past 24 hours.
• Ether: Traded at $2,242, down over 6% in the past 24 hours.
• CoinDesk Market Index Mover: Zebec Protocol (ZBC), up over 49%.
• Traditional Markets: NASDAQ down nearly 1.7%, S&P 500 down just over 0.5%.
• Commodities: Brent crude up slightly at $76.77 per barrel; Gold down nearly 1% at $2,055 per ounce.

Expert Analysis: Bitcoin Price and ETF Approval

Eddy Gifford shared insights into the recent market volatility, attributing it to speculation surrounding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. He suggested that uncertainty regarding ETF approval could lead to a sell-off if approval is delayed, while approval itself might trigger a "sell the news" event.

Concerns and Profit-Taking

Gifford highlighted that recent market gains (over 50% in Q4 2023) prompted some profit-taking, contributing to the current dip. He also noted the impact of analysts predicting a "sell the news" scenario following ETF approval, further influencing market behavior.

ETF Approval Odds

Gifford considers it highly unlikely that a spot Bitcoin ETF won't be approved, citing the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin despite prior skepticism from figures like Jamie Dimon. The fact that JPMorgan is an authorized participant for BlackRock's ETF was seen as a surprise and further supports the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in the financial sector.

Bitcoin Price Predictions and Recession Scenarios

Gifford's price predictions: In a scenario without ETF approval, a 10-15% correction is possible, potentially pushing Bitcoin into the $35,000-$37,000 range. However, he views any dip as a buying opportunity. He predicts Bitcoin reaching $50,000 within three to four months.

Regarding a potential recession, Gifford emphasizes that the cause of the recession will significantly affect the crypto market's reaction. A recession driven by systemic failure and falling interest rates might be less detrimental to Bitcoin compared to one stemming from persistent inflation and lack of growth.

Futures Market and Altcoin Outlook

Gifford noted relatively flat activity in the futures market, anticipating a potential catch-up with spot prices. He expects BlackRock's ETF to gain significant assets under management, even surpassing Grayscale, due to broader institutional adoption. He identifies Avalanche as a promising altcoin with growth potential in 2024, along with Ethereum, potentially boosted by its own spot ETF approval.

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