Bitcoin's Next Move: Can BTC Break Through $120K Resistance?
Bitcoin's Road to $120K: Key Levels and Market Signals
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential rebound, with analysts eyeing the $120,000 mark as the next major target. A confluence of factors, including institutional sentiment and on-chain data, suggests underlying strength. However, holding key support levels is crucial for this bullish outlook.
Institutional confidence in Bitcoin has been growing since mid-2025 as volatility decreased. JPMorgan has stated that Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to gold, viewing it as a macro hedge.
The MVRV Ratio, at 2.1, is far from overheated levels. Exchange reserves are shrinking while ETF inflows remain steady, indicating strong structural demand. This suggests Bitcoin's fair value is above its current market price.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $108,450, rebounding from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $104.7K, a historical support zone. A successful bounce could pave the way toward $112K and the $120K–$123K range.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 37, signaling easing downside pressure and edging towards oversold conditions. However, failure to maintain $104K could trigger a correction, with $100K as the next defense. Therefore, the $104K–$108K range will dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Source: TradingView
Derivatives Market Signals Potential Stabilization
Cooling Futures Volumes and a Bubble Map signal easing speculative activity. Reduced leverage often precedes market stabilization, as lower futures trading reduces liquidation risks. Calmer derivatives markets can foster sustained rallies, attracting institutional players who favor efficiency over volatility.
Network Value to Transaction Ratio Indicates Improvement
Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Ratio has dropped by over 23% to 23.7. A lower NVT ratio signifies improved network-transferred value relative to market capitalization, which historically supports sustainable price growth. Maintaining a subdued ratio is crucial; elevated readings have often preceded overheated valuations and corrections.
Outlook: Bitcoin's Potential to Reach $120K
JPMorgan’s undervaluation thesis aligns with improvements in on-chain metrics and technical resilience, reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential for renewed strength. If the $104K retracement level holds, the path toward $112K and $120K remains achievable. Cooling Futures activity and a lower NVT Ratio offer additional reasons for optimism.
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