Bitcoin at $115K: Bull Trap or Solid Ground?
Bitcoin's $115K Test: Fragility vs. Momentum
Bitcoin traded just above $115,000 in Asia Tuesday morning, experiencing a slight dip after a strong start to the week. This pullback follows significant inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and ongoing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. The question on traders' minds: is this a sustainable recovery, or is it a precarious situation following last week's CPI-induced volatility?
Diverging Analyst Views
The debate is reflected in contrasting research reports. Glassnode's weekly analysis points to underlying fragility. Despite a near 200% surge in ETF inflows and increased futures open interest, the spot market appears weak.
According to Glassnode, buying conviction remains shallow, funding rates have declined, and profit-taking is increasing, with over 92% of the supply currently in profit. They also note reduced downside hedges in options trading, potentially exposing the market if risk aversion returns. The core concern: ETF and futures activity are driving the rally, but stronger spot market participation is needed for BTC to maintain its gains.
QCP, a Singapore-based trading desk, presents a more optimistic outlook, suggesting crypto is “back on track.” They cite five consecutive days of substantial BTC ETF inflows, ETH's largest inflow in two weeks, and relative strength in XRP and SOL, even with ETF delays.
QCP argues that traders view regulatory delays as temporary rather than outright rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index reaching a 90-day high, they believe BTC's consolidation above $115,000 could serve as a springboard for investment to shift into higher-risk altcoins.
Market Overview
- BTC: Consolidating near $115,000 amid position adjustments before potential Fed moves. Institutional demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs offers support.
- ETH: Trading near $4500 resistance. Renewed institutional interest, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical signals are boosting gains.
- Gold: Holding near record highs due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, inflation concerns, and safe-haven demand. Profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar are slightly tempering gains.
- Nikkei 225: Surpassed 45,000 for the first time, driving Asia-Pacific gains due to positive U.S.-China trade discussions and progress on TikTok's divestment.
- S&P 500: Closed above 6,600 for the first time, driven by optimistic U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of the Fed meeting.
Additional Crypto News
- Coinbase App Store ranking suggests retail participation remains limited despite the recent crypto market rally.
- Robinhood is expanding its private equity token efforts with a new venture capital fund.
- MicroStrategy added $60 million to its Bitcoin treasury, marking the smallest purchase in a month.