Bitcoin's Post-Halving Surge: Institutions Drive Faster Cycle
One year post-2024 Bitcoin halving, BTC’s resilience shines through amidst global economic uncertainty. The halving, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, has been followed by a more than 33% increase in BTC's price since April 2024.
Bitcoin's Resilience and Accelerated Cycle
Despite concerns surrounding a global trade war and US-China tariff tensions, Bitcoin’s price performance has exceeded expectations. Market analyst Enmanuel Cardozo of Brickken attributes this resilience to a combination of factors, including past market experiences and ongoing investor hesitation.
However, Cardozo suggests that significant institutional investment from firms like Strategy and Tether could be accelerating Bitcoin’s typical four-year halving cycle. He predicts a potential bottom around Q3 2025 and a peak in mid-2026, but believes this timeline may shift sooner due to increased market maturity and liquidity.
Furthermore, a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut could inject additional liquidity into the system, potentially further boosting Bitcoin's price.
Halving's Impact on Scarcity
The Bitcoin halving, a programmed event reducing new Bitcoin issuance, is a key factor contributing to Bitcoin's inherent scarcity. This scarcity is a defining characteristic of BTC and is widely believed to underpin its long-term value proposition.
ETFs and Institutional Investment: Catalysts for Growth
Vugar Usi Zade, COO of Bitget exchange, highlights the role of institutional adoption and Bitcoin ETFs in potentially shortening the typical market cycle. He believes continued institutional buying, coupled with increasing scarcity, could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs, particularly if it surpasses the $90,000 mark.
While acknowledging the influence of traditional financial markets and investor sentiment, Usi Zade remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. He points to the rapid achievement of a new all-time high above $109,000 just 273 days post-halving— significantly faster than previous cycles (546 days in 2021 and 518 days in 2017).
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