$16.5B Bitcoin Options Expire: Will BTC Hit $90K?
$16.5B Bitcoin Options Expiry: A Market-Moving Event
A record-breaking $16.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options expire on March 28th. While this event usually creates significant market volatility, the recent BTC price drop below $90,000 has altered the landscape. Many bullish positions are now invalidated, giving bears a crucial opportunity to avoid potential losses.
Open interest currently stands at $10.5 billion for call (buy) options and $6 billion for put (sell) options. However, a significant portion ($7.6 billion) of these calls are priced at $92,000 or higher. For these calls to be profitable, BTC needs a 6.4% price increase from its current level. This significantly reduces the advantage for bullish bets.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price
Bitcoin's recent weakness is attributed to various factors, including the global tariff war and US government spending cuts, increasing recession fears. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains high, currently above 70% since early March. Concerns about slower growth, especially in the AI sector, also contribute to market uncertainty.
Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin bulls are betting on a decoupling from the stock market, pointing to continued monetary expansion by central banks and increased corporate Bitcoin adoption (e.g., GameStop, Rumble, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific).
Potential Scenarios and Market Strategies
As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears have strong incentives to influence the spot price. Bears aim to push Bitcoin below $84,000 to increase the value of their put options, while bulls strive to push it above $90,000 to maximize call option profits.
- $81,000 - $85,000: Calls favor by $100 million
- $85,000 - $88,000: Calls favor by $1.3 billion
- $88,000 - $90,000: Calls favor by $1.6 billion
- $90,000 - $92,000: Calls favor by $3 billion
Deribit dominates the options market with a 74% share, followed by CME (8.5%) and Binance (8%).
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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