Bitcoin Dips Despite ETF Inflows: Macro Factors or Whale Activity?
Bitcoin Price Correction: ETF Inflows and Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 2.8% price drop on Friday, reaching $107,400, despite $1 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over two days. This downturn occurred after a rejection near the $110,500 level on Thursday. While the price had hovered around $107,400 for most of the preceding week, the sudden dip has prompted market analysis. Some suggest it's simple profit-taking before the weekend, given BTC was only 1.5% below its all-time high.
Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, US$. Source: CoinGlass
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Growing global trade tensions and a worsening US fiscal outlook are likely contributing factors to investor apprehension. President Trump's reaffirmed deadline for increased import tariffs is fueling uncertainty. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist, advised reducing exposure if the S&P 500 approaches 6,300, citing rising bubble risks following a recent large fiscal package. This macroeconomic uncertainty could be dampening demand for both government bonds and risk assets like Bitcoin.
US gross federal debt, % of gross domestic product. Source: The Insider
Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Activity
The market also saw a significant transfer of 80,009 BTC from a long-dormant wallet, potentially belonging to a 2011-era miner. While this sparked speculation of a potential sell-off, the sheer volume of the transfer makes a large, immediate sale less likely. Moving such a substantial amount of BTC at once would attract significant attention and likely impact pricing negatively. Moreover, absorbing $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single transaction is unlikely even in an over-the-counter market.
Source: lookonchain
While large wallet movements can trigger fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), similar events in the past – including transfers in May 2025 (3,420 BTC), November 2024 (2,000 BTC), March 2024 (1,000 BTC), and November 2023 (6,500 BTC) – haven't historically correlated with long-term Bitcoin trend reversals.
Conclusion
The recent Bitcoin price correction appears more likely linked to macroeconomic factors, particularly escalating trade tensions and the US fiscal outlook, than a single large wallet transfer. While dormant wallet activity can add short-term volatility, it's crucial to consider the broader economic context. For reliable insights into blockchain security and development, consult Codeum for expert services in smart contract audits, KYC verification, custom smart contract and DApp development, and tokenomics and security consultation. We also offer valuable partnerships with launchpads and crypto agencies.
Disclaimer: This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.