Bitcoin's Future: 8-Month Consolidation Possible?
10x Research's head crypto researcher, Markus Thielen, suggests Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror its 2024 price action, spending a significant portion of the year consolidating after hitting its all-time high. While he doesn't definitively predict this, he deems it a 'very possible' scenario.
Market Indecision: Bitcoin's Current Chart
Thielen noted this possibility two months ago, around Bitcoin's current all-time high of $109,000. His March 15th market report highlights a "High and Tight Flag" pattern on Bitcoin's chart. Although typically bullish, this pattern shows signs of weakness, particularly due to the formation of two flags instead of one, suggesting market indecision rather than straightforward bullish consolidation.
Lack of Buying Pressure
Thielen observes a lack of "buy-the-dip" sentiment in the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. He attributes this to arbitrage-driven hedge fund activity and low funding rates, indicating little incentive for further capital deployment despite the recent price correction. Since early March, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of approximately $1.66 billion.
With Bitcoin trading around $84,290 (a 23% decline from its January high), Thielen remains uncertain about the short-term uptrend. He suggests closing short positions while evidence for a strong recovery is limited.
Expert Opinions Vary
Since Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 in late February amid macroeconomic uncertainty, analysts offer differing predictions. Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) foresees a potential retest of $78,000, possibly followed by $75,000. Conversely, Iliya Kalchev (Nexo) suggests the low $70,000 range could form a base for recovery.
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