Bitcoin Bull Run: Is it Over?
Bitcoin's Bull Market: A Bitfinex Perspective
Bitfinex's recent analysis indicates Bitcoin's (BTC) current bull cycle may not be over, suggesting a potential continuation of the rally. This positive outlook, however, is contingent upon the stabilization of broader macroeconomic conditions. The report acknowledges the possibility of short-term dips.
Will the Bitcoin Rally Continue?
Bitfinex highlights Bitcoin's April 2025 performance, exceeding average returns with a 14.08% monthly gain, surpassing the historical average of 13% and median of 7.3%. While April is typically strong for BTC, this year's performance is significantly noteworthy.
“While April has traditionally been a strong seasonal month for BTC, recent years have seen more muted results, making this yearʼs performance stand out more distinctly,” the report stated.
Despite initial challenges following President Trump's tariff announcements (which saw BTC dip to $74,501), Bitcoin rallied strongly in the second half of April, recovering 32% to reach local highs near $97,900. This recovery underscores Bitcoin's resilience against macroeconomic uncertainty.
On-chain data supports this bullish sentiment. Miner reserves increased slightly, signaling confidence. The stable reserves (1,808,674 BTC as of May 5th, up from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024) suggest miners, who typically sell to cover costs, anticipate future price appreciation. The Puell Multiple remaining below 2 further indicates miners don't perceive the current price as a peak.
“The fact that they are still holding into this recent 32 percent recovery from the April lows supports the idea that, despite recent volatility and macro uncertainty, we may not have seen the final leg of the current bull cycle,” the report stated.
Key Price Levels to Watch
A crucial short-term factor for Bitcoin is reclaiming the $95,000 level. This acts as a pivotal support/resistance point. Breaking above it would strongly signal a bullish trend and potentially pave the way for a challenge of all-time high prices. Failure to hold this level could trigger a short-term correction.
“The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025,” Bitfinex noted.
“As such, the next several days will likely determine whether the recent strength evolves into a sustained breakout or resolves into a retest of lower support zones,” the report added.
Bitfinex also analyzed the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis ($93,340). Bitcoin's price breaking above this level suggests short-term momentum, but sustained presence above it will be vital for the rally's continuation.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $94,236, down 0.1% in the last 24 hours. Whether it can fill the gap to its all-time high remains uncertain.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.