Bitcoin Bull Market Over? CEO's Analysis Suggests Bearish Trend
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes the Bitcoin bull market has ended, with prices currently hovering around $82,000. His analysis focuses on key technical indicators, specifically the relationship between Bitcoin's Realized Cap and Market Cap, alongside selling pressure.
Bitcoin Bear Market: Expert Analysis
In a recent X post, Ju argues that Bitcoin has entered bear market territory. His conclusion is based on the interplay between Bitcoin's Realized Cap and Market Cap.
Realized Cap reflects Bitcoin's value based on the price at which each BTC was last transacted. Market Cap, conversely, uses the current price multiplied by the circulating supply. Ju emphasizes that Market Cap alone is insufficient; low selling pressure can inflate Market Cap even with small purchases, artificially suggesting bullish momentum. This strategy has allowed some entities to boost the paper value of their holdings.
Conversely, high selling pressure makes rallies difficult even with substantial purchases. MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion failed to trigger a significant price increase, unlike previous acquisitions.
On-chain data reveals a rising Realized Cap while Market Cap is declining—a clear bearish signal. Although new capital is entering the market, prices aren't responding, indicating a shift from a bull market.
Ju states, "When even large capital injections can't push prices higher, it's a bear market."
Bearish Signals for Bitcoin Price
Despite positive fundamentals and large-scale acquisitions, on-chain indicators remain weak. Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating within a bearish pennant pattern, suggesting further price declines. Recent minor price increases have fueled speculation about Bitcoin decoupling from the S&P 500.
While some analysts predict a short-term drop to $80,000 (with Bitcoin at $82,950 at the time of writing), Ju's outlook is more pessimistic. He anticipates a prolonged bear market lasting up to six months. He explains, "Sell pressure could ease at any time, but historically, true reversals take at least six months."
Despite the bearish sentiment, it's important to note that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently praised Bitcoin as a store of value, comparing it favorably to gold.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the opinions of CryptoQuant's CEO and market conditions. Conduct thorough research before investing in cryptocurrencies. Codeum does not endorse any specific investment strategies and is not responsible for potential financial losses.