Will Bitcoin Conclude 2025 with Gains or Losses?
Bitcoin's Year-End Outlook: Gains or Losses?
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) faces the possibility of ending the year in the red unless it can achieve a 6.24% increase from its opening price of approximately $93,374. This would mark the first post-halving year Bitcoin closes negatively, barring a late surge. Analyst Nic Puckrin commented, "Three days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle."
Bitcoin reached an all-time high exceeding $125,000 in October, just before a significant market downturn led to widespread declines across the crypto sector. Currently, BTC's value has decreased by about 30% since its peak, forming a local bottom around $80,000 in November. This has sparked debates among analysts regarding the potential onset of a bear market.
Macroeconomic Influences and Market Sentiment
Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory as 2026 approaches, with many focusing on macroeconomic factors such as liquidity conditions that influence BTC's price movements. The cryptocurrency has been trading below its critical 365-day moving average since November, breaking a structural uptrend established in 2023.
Attention is now on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly whether interest rate cuts will continue. Despite three 25 basis point cuts in 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's mixed guidance at the December FOMC meeting has left investors uncertain about future rate adjustments.
Lower interest rates typically act as catalysts for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, by injecting fresh liquidity. However, only 18.8% of investors anticipate a rate cut in January, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Conclusion
The uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's year-end performance reflects broader market conditions and investor sentiment. As the year concludes, all eyes are on potential macroeconomic shifts and their impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory.