Bitcoin's $100K Hold: Liquidity Crunch, Not Retail Mania
Bitcoin's $100K Support: A Liquidity Story
Bitcoin [BTC] has maintained a price above $100,000 for 89 days, demonstrating resilience and consistent growth despite market corrections. However, recent analysis suggests the primary driver isn't retail investment, but a tightening supply.
Exchange Outflows Highlight Scarcity
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler points out that Bitcoin's average Exchange Netflow on centralized exchanges has been consistently negative since late February 2024. Only two days saw net inflows, with outflows dominating the rest.
Source: CryptoQuant
This persistent outflow has reduced available liquidity in the spot market, contributing to a supply shortage and, consequently, upward price pressure.
Stock-to-Flow Ratio Confirms Tightening Supply
Bitbo data reinforces this perspective, showing Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow ratio surging to 369.4K BTC. This scarcity model projects a theoretical price of $3.2 million per BTC, assuming demand remains stable or increases.
Source: Bitbo
Whale Behavior: Accumulation Over Selling
Unlike previous cycles driven by retail speculation, large entities are now key players. Checkonchain data indicates that Bitcoin whales have largely refrained from selling.
Source: Checkonchain
Currently, whale exchange balances are at -73k BTC, while mega-whales hold a balance of -19k BTC. This sustained negative balance signals a reluctance to sell, despite significant profits.
Spot ETF Demand Intensifies Scarcity
Institutional demand via Spot ETFs is another significant factor reducing Bitcoin's liquidity. Since the approval of BTC Spot ETFs in early 2024, these funds now hold over 1.3 million BTC, valued at over $149 billion.
Source: Checkonchain
This substantial increase in ETF AUM reflects ongoing institutional accumulation, contributing significantly to Bitcoin's recent all-time highs, while retail demand has been comparatively muted.
What's Next for Bitcoin's Price?
AMBCrypto's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's scarcity, driven by whale and institutional demand, is a strong driver for continued upward momentum. If this demand persists, Bitcoin is likely to recover from recent corrections and resume its uptrend, potentially reclaiming the $117k resistance and targeting new all-time highs.
However, a shift in sentiment among large holders, leading to increased selling pressure, could trigger a deeper correction, potentially finding support around $110,572.