Altcoin Season: 3 Catalysts to Watch for a Potential Rally
Will Altcoin Season Start Soon? 3 Key Catalysts to Watch
The next significant altcoin season catalysts could materialize in September or October. But will altcoins maintain their current range in the short term?
Bitcoin's (BTC) rally to $123,000, spurred by the GENIUS Act, boosted the entire crypto market and initiated a mini altcoin season in July. However, this momentum has waned as BTC stabilizes below $120,000.
The altcoin season index, which tracks altcoin rally pace, has decreased below 50% after peaking at 60% on July 1st.
In 2023 and early 2025, the index hovered near 50% for about two months before either advancing or fully retracing. Will a similar pattern emerge, and what will trigger the next altcoin rally?
Potential Altcoin Season Catalysts
Here are three potential catalysts that could fuel the next phase of altcoin recovery:
- Federal Interest Rate Cuts: Markets anticipate no changes at the July 30th meeting. However, there's a 63.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, potentially creating a new risk-on environment.
- Passage of the CLARITY Act: The GENIUS Act-driven BTC surge could be mirrored if the broader CLARITY Act passes. Lawmakers aim to pass the CLARITY Act by the end of September. A rate cut combined with this bill could trigger a significant rally in BTC and altcoins.
- Altcoin ETF Approval: Approval of altcoin ETFs, including staking offerings for Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), could be another catalyst, potentially occurring by October.
The current snapshot indicates that the necessary conditions for an altcoin wave are still present.
Notably, the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum's strength relative to Bitcoin, remains at recent highs.
Additionally, Bitcoin and USDT dominance have decreased, suggesting modest altcoin recovery and available stablecoin liquidity to fuel a rally.
In essence, the market awaits the right trigger to spark the next altcoin season wave, potentially emerging in September or October through Federal Reserve rate cuts, passage of the CLARITY Act, or altcoin ETF approvals.
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