Analyzing Kusama’s [KSM] potential breakout in the near future

KSM has suffered heavy downside in the last few months, especially this year as markets crashed. However, it might be due for a major price change considering its price action for the last few months.

The Kusama blockchain has been growing at a healthy pace, although that growth does not reflect in KSM’s price action. The cryptocurrency has instead been on an overall bearish trend but that performance might be about to change. Zooming out on KSM’s charts reveals that its 3-chart highlights a falling wedge pattern in which it has been trading since last year.

A falling wedge pattern is often characterized by lower lows and is considered a precursor to a bullish breakout. The support and resistance lines in KSM’s wedge pattern are currently converging towards each other. The price is now being squeezed into a tight range, and hence increasing the probability of a breakout.

Source: TradingView

KSM’s historic performance reveals that it always registers a substantial bounce-back after touching the support line. However, its recent interaction did not yield similar results but instead highlights the lack of buying pressure. Such an outcome is not surprising given the prevailing market conditions.

Will KSM achieve a bullish breakout?

A falling wedge with lower lows is supposed to yield a bullish breakout. This is supported by the fact that the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to recover from oversold conditions. The bears also appear to be losing their momentum as shown by the DMI. Meanwhile, the MFI formed a higher high versus the lower low in the price compared to the previous dip. This means there was not as much distribution at the latest dip compared to the previous one.

Source: TradingView

KSM indicators seem to align with the conditions necessary for strong accumulation and a bullish recovery. However, this does not necessarily guarantee that there will not be more downside and the market is not always straightforward.

The crypto market is struggling to recover from the latest crash and the bearish assault might not be over. KSM’s sideways performance in the last few days is a sign that there is not enough buying volume to push a substantial recovery. It reflects the observation that whales have not started accumulating after the latest crash.

Source: Santiment

Conclusion

The slight increase in market cap in the last few days reflects retail accumulation after the crash. It looks like the institutional and smart money is sizing up the market and exercising caution. Although the recovery seems overdue, the current market conditions suggests that there is still risk of downside before a major recovery.