Polymarket Eyes $10B Valuation with US Relaunch
Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation in US Comeback
Polymarket is gearing up for a relaunch in the United States, potentially valuing the blockchain-powered prediction market at $10 billion, according to Business Insider. The platform has already garnered substantial investor interest, with term sheets exceeding $9 billion.
This marks a significant increase from its $1 billion valuation in June, when it secured $200 million in a funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. The prediction market received the green light from the CFTC to operate in the USA.
Kalshi Nears $5B Valuation Amid Growth
Polymarket isn't the only prediction platform gaining traction. Kalshi, already operating under CFTC oversight, is reportedly close to finalizing a round that would value the company at $5 billion. This is more than double its valuation from just a few months prior, when Paradigm led a $185 million raise.
A court ruling last year allowed Kalshi to list political event contracts, boosting its appeal. The CFTC initially appealed the decision but later dropped the challenge.
Trading volume supports this growth. In August, Kalshi processed $875 million in trading activity, nearing Polymarket’s $1 billion. During the first week of the National Football League season, Kalshi cleared $441 million.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi: Different Approaches
Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different models:
- Kalshi: Functions as a regulated US exchange, requiring dollar deposits and KYC compliance.
- Polymarket: Operates on the Polygon blockchain, settling trades in USDC and allowing semi-anonymous participation.
These contrasting approaches reflect different philosophies regarding regulation and user experience.
Prediction Markets Attract Significant Capital
Investor enthusiasm underscores the rise of prediction markets as a legitimate trading sector. Polymarket is backed by Founders Fund, while Kalshi counts Paradigm and Sequoia Capital among its supporters.
The Block Data reports that prediction market funding has already reached a peak this year. Over $216 million has been raised across 11 deals, compared to $80 million last year.
Even crypto-native companies are entering the space, with Crypto.com and Underdog launching sports prediction markets across 16 states. Coinbase is exploring its own platform, and X has named Polymarket its official prediction partner. Kalshi has partnered with Robinhood.
Challenges in the Prediction Market Landscape
Despite rising valuations, both Polymarket and Kalshi face challenges. User engagement can fluctuate outside major events, potentially requiring new prediction contract categories to sustain activity. Regulatory uncertainty remains a concern, even for Kalshi. However, investors remain confident in the long-term potential of prediction markets.