Ethereum Price Faces Resistance: Potential for Growth Beyond Critical Levels

Ethereum (ETH) has seen a 3.5% increase over the past week, suggesting a minor recovery. However, the token remains over 2% down on the daily chart, indicating persistent selling pressure.

This combination of short-term gains and daily losses explains Ethereum's failed breakout on October 27, yet some investors are quietly anticipating a rebound.

Cooling Demand Impact

Ethereum's recent setback stems from decreased accumulation by active holders. The holder accumulation ratio declined from 31.278 to 30.964, reflecting a 1% decrease from its recent three-month high.

Fewer addresses are adding ETH as prices rise, signaling trader caution or a wait for better opportunities. Exchange flows also mirror this sentiment shift. The exchange net position change, indicating ETH leaving exchanges, has become less negative. Outflows decreased from 1.94 million ETH on October 15 to 1.10 million ETH by October 27, a 43% reduction.

Supply Cluster Limits Rally

The cost-basis heatmap shows a strong supply cluster between $4,283 and $4,326, totaling approximately 1.34 million ETH. This is where Ethereum's rally stalled, as seen in the $4,254-$4,395 range. Previous buyers might sell to secure profits, adding pressure.

Balanced Ethereum Price Setup

Ethereum is navigating a symmetrical triangle since October 7. The recent rejection at the upper trendline on October 27 confirmed strong resistance without disrupting the broader pattern. To regain momentum, Ethereum must close above the triangle's upper boundary. The initial target is $4,254, followed by $4,395, a potential 7% rise.

Breaking these levels would overcome the cost basis cluster. The Smart Money Index, tracking outperforming wallets, has shown higher lows since October 22, indicating confidence in a near-term rebound. However, a drop below $3,918 weakens the pattern, exposing $3,711 as the next support, undermining bullish prospects and smart money optimism.